Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife?

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We began 2007 with S&P500 companies forecasting earnings growth of +9.4% from a year earlier. This week as fourth Quarter earnings releases roll out the revised estimates for companies is for a 6% decline in earnings instead of a gain according to Standard & Poors. Barron’s, in their article titled: “It’s Time to Buy,” published […]

Is it time to bottom fish?

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The first two weeks of 2008 produced the poorest market returns since 1982.  Yet today the market made a strong rally on news of IBM’s above-average earnings that sharply beat analysts’ expectations. What does this portend for the market and will this rally now continue? 
Unfortunately No, because nothing fundamental has changed to warrant a stock market rally.  Our view is […]

Can the US bail itself out before crisis engulfs it ?

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The numbers are out and there are few bright spots on the American economic landscape.  By most any domestic economic measure: Gross Domestic Product, Employment, Manufacturing, US (Domestic) Corporate Earnings, Durable Goods Orders, Housing, Consumer Spending, Cost of Goods Sold (real CPI), Consumer Sentiment, Energy Prices, Balance of Payments, Deficit, Dollar value, and Financial Condition, the US is in a […]

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