SeriousBull

G8 Summit: Bush vs Medvedev. It’s Medvedev’s to lose.

Tags: Bush + Economy + G8 Summit + Hokkaido + investing + Medvedev + Oil + Putin + Russia

President Bush will meet with his counterparts at the G8 meeting in Hokkaido, Japan this week—a combination what-a-we-do-now and “hey, I did my best guys” meeting. Atop the Summit’s agenda will surely be the catapulting price of oil, rising inflation, the imploding financial system, and the slowing global economy. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will attend for the first time. Media reports indicate that Medvedev is a polished version of former President Putin albeit with the same agenda to advance Russia’s economic standing and regain a seat as a recognized power-broker among industrialized nations of the world.

President Bush’s political stature and statemen’s ranking is much maligned going into the Summit– as much because he is a lame duck President, but also because the US is regarded as having caused the global financial crisis with its reckless sub-prime loan syndications under Fed Chairman Greenspan. The Bush Administration is additionally looked upon has having orchestrated an offensive weak dollar policy to advantage US corporate trade at the expense of its trading partners. And to be sure, Europe detests Bush’s slights to consult them and his unilateralists policies on issues as far-reaching as reneging on the SALT I Disarmament treaty and his cowboy style pre-emptive strike foreign policy regarded as contributing to instability and inciting the temperament for a new cold war. What’s more, among those attending, Bush is held with disdain for disregarding the Geneva Convention on treatment of Prisoners of War and considered a hard-headed ludite for his administration’s denial of global warming that has heretofore spoiled efforts to address  global climate-change.

By contrast Medvedev still enjoys his Presidential ‘first day’s honeymoon’ and holds Putin’s well-played hand that bestowed Russia with an envious politico-economic suit. First, disgusted with Bush’s treatment of Russia as a second class power, Putin rejected the Bush Administration’s overtures for an American financed pipeline to Europe and instead consolidated Moscow’s hold on oil supplies to Europe. Then following NATO’s recruitment of now independent Soviet territories and Bush’s push to install a missile defense system in the Czech Republic and missiles in Poland, Putin signed cooperative military agreements with China and countered Bush’s Iraq oil grab by entering into a long term agreement with Iran to supply nuclear utility development assistance while China signed agreements with Iran to develop their oil fields. Futhermore Putin threatened to take aggressive military counter-measures, like aiming nuclear missiles back at Europe, should Washington disregard its security concerns. Moreover, since Russia’s economy is enjoying fast growth and has an enviable balance sheet compared to that of the US, it has the resources to effectively thwart US policy initiatives it opposes. For example it will surely incite public dissent against parliamentary approval and fund Greenpeace opposition to missile deployment. It will also likely strive to convince Europe that US actions are hostile to Russia and if Europe condones  them it will seek to punish them by further gaining dominance of oil supplies in the Caspian Sea basin– a card it has already begun to play. Putin of course is on record for having already made such threats. It will fall upon Medvedev to persuade Europe that Russia will not be bullied and that it merely seeks equal recognition in shaping the global future.

So little or no progress on pressing issues is expected at Hokkaido—no solution to high oil prices, no consensus on global warming, and no remedy for rising inflation. Bush might delight in wining short term bragging rights by securing a missile defense agreement, but it will come at a hefty long term price both to the US and Europe. Indeed he may leave Hokkaido feeling he has secured his place in history but he is unlikely to to be remembered any differently than for what his administration stood for– disregard for the rule of law and unbridled arrogance. 

Americans may by contrast may give Bush a C grade overall for his two term Presidency. To be balanced one must admit Bush deserves credit for preventing another US terrorists attack at home. Indeed facing those who wish us death, we had the right man in office–a Machiavellian, zealot type who for all the bad he did otherwise, sent a clear and non-ambiguous message to those who would harm us that you don’t mess with Texas–er a cowboy from Texas, or how about in Bush’s vernacular a Texas borned President.

July 7, 2008 - Economy, Politics